### Inventory of fragile countries in sub -Saharan Africa: a vicious circle reinforced by the climate and conflicts
According to reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of April 2025, the situation of fragile countries affected by a conflict (PFC) in sub -Saharan Africa is worrying. Currently, 18 of the 39 countries recognized as PFC by the IMF are in this region, representing a demographic weight of more than 670 million inhabitants. The fragility of these countries, exacerbated by a complex combination of socio-economic and environmental factors, poses major challenges to their stability and their sustainable development.
#### A dark painting: economic stagnation and food insecurity
The report stresses that these countries are faced with stagnation of growth, fragile institutions and largely deficient public services. Acute food insecurity concerns almost one in six residents in these countries, a figure that illustrates the severity of the situation. The vulnerability of PFCs is aggravated by natural disasters and climatic shocks, which only increase social tensions and hinder development efforts. Indeed, PFCs are 64 % more affected by deaths linked to natural disasters compared to other countries in the region.
With projections indicating that by 2040, a PFC country could undergo temperatures exceeding 35 ° C for 74 days a year, the consequences on agricultural production and food security seem alarming. How can these countries develop adaptation and resilience strategies in the face of such a climate context?
#### Wealth, a curse for development
Another worrying aspect is the paradoxical relationship between richness in natural resources and economic stability. The IMF reveals that more than 60 % of PFCs depend on this wealth, of which almost 30 % of the revenues come from extraction activities. This phenomenon, often described as a “curse of resources”, has led to increased political instability and a weakening of institutions. How then to transform this wealth into an asset for inclusive development rather than a source of conflicts and fragility?
The political situation, marked by a succession of conflicts and coups, further complicates this painting. Sub -Saharan Africa recorded more than 60 % of the 69 attempts at a global -scale coup between 2000 and 2023, 40 % of which took place in the PFCs. This unstable environment contributes to massive displacements of populations, placing these countries in a high risk area both for refugees and for those who seek a refuge.
#### The challenge of external help
Despite the severity of the issues, the PFCs come up against severe budgetary constraints. The median ratio tax/GDP revenue in these countries is significantly lower than the regional average, which raises the question of long -term viability of their development. Although external help is essential, it has been declining for two decades, which worsens the situation.
Recently, traditional donor countries, such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium, have announced reductions in their aid budget. In 2024, the PFCs received around 60 % of public development aid for sub -Saharan Africa, but these amounts remain below real needs. The decrease in the financing of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) could also exacerbate this situation. What international solidarity mechanisms are necessary to effectively support these countries while respecting their sovereignty?
#### Towards a search for solutions
The challenges faced by the PFCs of sub -Saharan Africa are complex and nested. To get out of this cycle of fragility and conflict, it is essential to promote approaches focused on sustainable development, the improvement of institutions and climate resilience. This could go through investments in education, health and infrastructure, as well as the implementation of policies promoting transparent and equitable management of natural resources.
It is also crucial to engage local populations in the design and implementation of public policies. Development initiatives have sometimes failed because they did not take into account cultural and economic realities in the field. How can experts and decision-makers better collaborate with local communities to create sustainable and suitable solutions?
This analysis of PFCs in sub -Saharan Africa calls for a deep reflection and concerted actions to break this vicious circle of fragility, conflict and poverty. It is by approaching these challenges in a holistic and inclusive way that we can hope for a more stable and prosperous future for these countries and their populations.