** The complex return of Joseph Kabila: between reconciliation and political tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo **
The return of former Congolese president Joseph Kabila, after a long period of exile, raises many questions about the political future of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the dynamics of the in progress in the east of the country. Arrived in Goma, a city currently under the control of the M23 armed group, Kabila wishes to engage in peace efforts at a time when the humanitarian situation is particularly worrying.
The presence of Kabila in Goma, a strategic city plagued by hostilities, is the subject of animated debates. On the one hand, his supporters see this approach as a sincere will to work for peace; On the other hand, its detractors fear that it will aggravate the politico-military tensions, in particular between the central government and the M23, a group supported by Rwanda, which fights for territorial control.
The recent history of the DRC is marked by depths of violence and cycles of conflict which, over the years, have caused millions of people and forced millions of others to flee their homes. The current crisis, exacerbated by the advance of the M23 and the accusation of support for this movement by the government in place, even more complicates the political and social landscape. Indeed, analysts, like Christian Moleka of the Think Tank Dypol, evoke the possibility that Kabila’s return has a “explosive effect” on Congolese politics.
Kabila’s thesis as the rebels’ support was fueled by the accusations of the current president, Félix Tshisekedi, who said last year that the ex-president was preparing an insurrection. In this regard, it is essential to wonder to what extent these accusations are founded and how they influence the public perception of Kabila and its intentions.
Kabila’s perception is also complicated by its past. Elected for the first time at the age of 29 in 2011, Kabila extended her mandate by delaying the elections, which earned him criticism for his approach to power and the management of democracy in the DRC. His long presidency created a polarization in the country, between unwavering supporters and resolved opponents. In this context, his return can be interpreted sometimes as an opportunity for reconciliation, sometimes as a threat to reinstate old political rivalries.
Diplomatic efforts, such as recent discussions between the Congolese government and the M23 in Qatar, illustrate the complexity of the challenges at stake. Regional and international actors try to promote a dialogue that could lead to a ceasefire, but the situation remains fragile. Kabila’s commitment, according to her allies, could lay bases for inclusive participation in the peace process, allowing Congolese to play a central role in the discussions concerning them.
However, it is legitimate to question the sustainability of this participation. The risk of climbing tensions remains high, as is that of a misinterpretation of Kabila’s intentions in a context where the accusations of collusion with the M23 exist.
The challenge for the DRC will be to ensure a space where all the voices, including those of the former president, can be heard without provoking additional divisions. In the end, Joseph Kabila’s return is a reflection of a complex reality which requires an open dialogue and an inclusive approach for peace, so hoped, is not just a pious wish, but a tangible reality.
It therefore seems crucial that the actors of Congolese politics, whether old, current or emerging, adopt a constructive posture, going beyond historical rivalries to meet the immense challenges that the DRC faces. Peace search should not be limited to political speeches, but must result in concrete actions aimed at improving the lives of the Congolese, stabilizing the region and rebuilding confidence between different groups and communities.