## Ukraine’s membership in the European Union: between hopes and obstacles
Since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, the debate on the integration of Ukraine into the European Union (EU) has gained intensity. While the hopes of membership were very high in the months that followed, this process seems today in a delicate situation. The reluctance expressed by certain Member States, notably Hungary, complicate an already fragile dynamic.
#### A complex process
The path to integration into the EU is long and strewn with pitfalls. This process requires the unanimity of the 27 member states at each stage, making any progress particularly difficult. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed significant reserves about the candidacy of Ukraine. Orban has long justified its position by arguing that Ukraine is not ready to join the EU on the political, economic and judicial levels. His veto is illustrated as a powerful blockage in the membership procedure.
This attitude is not completely new. In the past, Orban’s positions have often oscillated between discreet statements of support and an explicit refusal to move forward in terms of membership. This turn could be interpreted as a means of strengthening its internal position as the legislative elections in Hungary are approaching.
#### Impact of geopolitical considerations
Beyond the bilateral issues between Hungary and Ukraine, the international context plays a crucial role. Relations between the EU, Russia and the United States are often tangled in this dynamic. Donald Trump’s recent re-election in the White House has thrown a new light on the positioning of European countries vis-à-vis Ukraine, in particular by letting American support envisage less stable than in the past. Current geopolitics further complicates the question of adhesion.
Some voices rise to denounce this Hungarian posture, calling it “political blackmail” and pointing towards a possible Russian influence included in this equation. However, it is necessary to understand the legitimate concerns that certain countries may have, in particular those with common borders with Ukraine, in the face of enlargement in a tense geopolitical context.
### diplomacy in action
Ukraine, aware of these issues, claims a strategy of “discreet diplomacy”. The spokesperson for Ukrainian diplomacy, Guéorguii Tykhy, insisted that efforts are made behind the scenes in order to persuade Budapest to lift her opposition. This strategy suggests a desire to overcome antagonisms through dialogue, but also raises the question of the transparency of such steps.
For their part, European officials, such as Commissioner Marta Kos, claim that a positive dynamic is maintained. She insists on the persistence of negotiations and on a favorable development with regard to the membership chapters. However, it is relevant to question the feasibility of full and whole membership by 2030, as some hope. Analysis of historical deadlines in the EU enlargement process could rather lead to considering a period of 15 to 20 years, as Lukas Macek, expert in EU enlargement policies underlines.
### conclusion: an uncertain future but necessarily envisaged
The membership of Ukraine to the EU is at the crossroads. Between the aspirations of a country at war that seeks to anchor more and the resistance of certain member states with multiple concerns, the delicate balance is to be achieved.
It is essential to reflect on the implications of such integration not only for Ukraine, but also for the future of the European Union. The question of whether the EU can reinvent itself to meet the challenges of a geopolitical changing landscape is more relevant than ever. For this, a balanced approach, involving mutual understanding and collaboration efforts, will be essential. An improvement involves recognition of the concerns of all the actors, as well as through a constructive and respectful exchange of views. In this spirit, diplomacy and political creativity seem more essential than ever.