### Towards a new era of instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo?
The recent announcement of Thomas Lubanga, former warlord and convict by the International Criminal Court for War Crimes, concerning the formation of a new movement, the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CPR), in the province of Ituri, could mark a disturbing escalation of the already chronic instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This situation raises crucial questions about the future of this nation rich in resources, but ravaged by armed conflicts and power struggles.
### A homecoming
Lubanga, known for having founded the Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC) in the early 2000s, is far from being a newcomer to political violence. His past is tinged with human rights violations, in particular the recruitment of children soldiers, which earned him a conviction of 14 years in prison, of which he served a part before being released in 2020. His return to the political scene, although allegedly peaceful for the moment, cannot ignore the tumultuous history of the DRC, where each movement seems potentially announcing armed conflict.
### A fragile regional context
The security landscape in the DRC is already disrupted by the rapid advance of the Rebel M23 group, supported by Rwanda, in the provinces of North and South Kivu. This unstable context is exacerbated by tensions between the DRC and its Rwandan neighbor, which go back to decades and are often fed by ethnic rivalries and geopolitical ambitions. The peacekeeping missions, although present, have proven to be insufficient to create a climate of sustainable security and confidence among the local population.
The situation in Ituri is not an isolated event. On the contrary, it illustrates an alarming scheme of fragmentation of state authority, reinforced by the gerontocratic presence of former warlords seeking to reintroduce a military framework in response to governments perceived as fragile.
### What consequences for the population?
The ramifications of a new actor like the CPR could be disastrous for the local population, already stifled by violence and poverty. Under these conditions, the boom in armed movements could lead to a spiral of violence, where innocent civilians would be the first victims. The recent reports of the UN already indicate a disturbing escalation of violence between armed groups in the east of the country, sowing terror and making humanitarian access more and more difficult.
Statistically, the DRC remains one of the most in difficulty in the world in terms of humanitarian vulnerability: it is estimated that more than 26 million people need humanitarian assistance. The conflict in Ituri could worsen this crisis, resulting in an influx of displaced and increased pressure on the already precarious resources.
### to an uncertain future
The growing instability caused by Lubanga’s announcements could also encourage other factions to emerge, nourishing more divisions within Congolese society. The question of the legitimacy of these movements, which are based on a populist and often nationalist rhetoric, must be considered with care. Because it is often in despair that the most extreme ideologies find their playground.
In this regard, it would be relevant to remember that history is dotted with similar examples in Africa, where rebellion movements started with the promise of a change, before sinking into chaos. Сирил рамапоса in South Africa and the movements of young people in Sudan are recent examples, although the contexts are different. The lessons of the past should guide a deeper reflection on the real motivations of movements such as the CPR and their potential long -term impacts.
### Conclusion
The training of the Convention for the Popular Revolution in Ituri should not be interpreted as a simple political curiosity. On the contrary, it could well foreshadow a new era of conflict for the DRC, a country which already fights against multiple crises. The analysis of the implications of this development, both local and regional, is crucial to anticipate intervention strategies, whether on the part of the international community, regional actors or humanitarian organizations. While the DRC seems to prey to a confusion, each actor of the conflict must be scrutinized carefully in order to protect civilians from new unnecessary suffering.