### Economic perspectives in Egypt: a light at the end of the attacking tunnel
In a global economic context marked by uncertainties, the recent forecasts by J.P. Morgan concerning monetary policy in Egypt open a new horizon for the economic actors of the country. The American multinational bank believes that interest rates could be reduced by 6 % in the meetings of the Central Bank of Egypt in April and June, an approach that is both daring and strategic. This anticipation of drop in rates responds to a series of encouraging signals on the inflation front, which, after reaching alarming levels, finally seems to mark a slowdown.
#### Decryption of figures: Inflation on the decline
The key factor residing behind this prediction is the unexpected fall in the inflation rate, which stood at 12.8 % in February 2025, to be compared with an impressive 24 % in January. This lightening, although delightful, must be nuanced. According to Moncef Morsi, head of research at CI Capital, this decrease does not mean that prices fall in absolute value, but rather that the speed of price increases slows down. This nuance may seem technical, but it is crucial for understanding the underlying economic dynamics.
Methodological revisions concerning the way in which Egypt lists price adjustments, especially in the educational sector, introduce a dose of uncertainty in data interpretations. For the general public, fewer clues on price trends can lead to less informed consumption and investment decisions.
#### Food prices: a mirror of economic reality
Particular attention must be paid to the food sector, which, despite an overall slowdown in inflation, has alarming increases. The prices of certain basin foodstuffs – such as bread (+7.2 %), fruits (+44.1 %), and dairy products (+7.9 %) – show increases that hit Egyptian households with full force, especially those with low incomes. These increases bear witness to a dysfunctional agricultural sector which struggles to meet demand in a context where economic instability remains a reality.
The fact that fruit prices have increased exponentially highlights the need to improve the food supply chain in Egypt. The country, although producing many fruits and vegetables, suffers from considerable post-harvest losses due to inadequate conservation and transport infrastructures. A study by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) revealed that up to 40 % of food production is lost, which highlights the importance of strategic investments in the sector.
#### Market reactions: an opportunity to seize
Decrease interest rate expectations and the recent IMF approval of the fourth revision of the $ 8 billion financing agreement are indicators speaking, encouraging cautious optimism. The local market has already reacted, demonstrating net trends in net purchasing by Arab and foreign investors, amounting to $ 1.035 billion between Tuesday and last Thursday.
However, it is essential to consider how these movements are part of a broader economic landscape. Anticipated interest rate reductions must be perceived through the prism of the stimulation of the interior economy: facilitate access to credit for small and medium -sized enterprises (SMEs) essential to economic recovery.
### This long -term vision: what challenges for the future?
In this dynamic, the question remains that of the long term. Should Egyptian authorities rest on this monetary easing to revive consumption, or focus on the structural reforms necessary to strengthen resilient and sustainable economy? A sophisticated softening strategy, combined with efforts to strengthen local productive capacities, may well be compromise patience necessary in the face of persistent economic challenges.
In the immediate future, the forecasts by J.P. Morgan can offer a welcome respite to a proven population, but this must be accompanied by a serious reflection on the future. Egypt is at a crossroads: between the aspiration for economic recovery and the reality of pressing social challenges, the road to a lasting future will depend on the choices made now. Beyond short-term trends, an approach focused on social, sustainable, and education could truly draw the contours of resilient economy, capable of facing the storms to come.