### Somaliland: Between Recognition and Political Fiction
In an era marked by intense geopolitical rivalries, the issue of the recognition of Somaliland by the United States, under the impetus of a Trump administration potentially eager for new strategic alliances, offers a fascinating prism on contemporary power dynamics. What added value can be brought to this debate, beyond the simple issues of territorial recognition? What critical perspective do we take on the history, the conflicted democratic dynamics and the geopolitical implications of such recognition?
#### A History of Colonialism and Secession
Somaliland, which proclaimed its independence in 1991 following the civil war in Somalia, is often ignored by an international community struggling to break away from the old lines drawn by colonialism. The paradox of Somaliland lies in the fact that it has succeeded, over the decades, in establishing itself as a bastion of stability and democracy in a tumultuous region. The comparison with Eritrea, which also experienced a secession, highlights the consequences that can result from external intervention and historical political choices.
Continuing a comparative analysis, we will see that Somaliland’s neighboring countries – Somalia, Djibouti and Ethiopia – present less encouraging indices of democracy according to the 2024 Freedom House report. To this extent, the relevance of the recognition of Somaliland by powers such as the United States should not be limited to a simple issue of geopolitical positioning, but also questions the legitimacy of a democratic governance project alongside governments that display repressive policies.
#### Global Expectations: A Projection of the Future
The recognition of Somaliland, for example by the United States, would not be without ripple effects. It would potentially disrupt regional balances in the Horn of Africa, where the US military presence in Djibouti is just the tip of the iceberg. By considering a naval base in Berbera, the United States would be entering an already complex history of military rivalries, but also of economic opportunities, exacerbated by China’s growing influence in the region.
Indeed, China’s ability to establish a partnership with Eritrea as an alternative to recognizing Somaliland represents an opportunity for Beijing to consolidate its military presence while playing on geopolitical fault lines. But more profoundly, this duality between West and East recalls the tensions of the Cold War, when the superpowers competed for strategic angles of attack in this part of the world, a period that seems to have been forgotten.
#### Socio-Economic Dimensions
Beyond the military and political stakes, a recognition of Somaliland could reverse the economic dynamics of the region. Beachheads like Berbera, with one of the best natural harbors in Africa, could become crucial commercial hubs. It could also generate a flow of foreign investment into a Somaliland that has already demonstrated its capacity to maintain peace and stability.
From an economic point of view, this evokes an oxymoron: a territory not recognized by the international community but that continues to evolve in a global system. Companies, in search of new opportunities, could be tempted to explore the still unexplored potentials of Somaliland. This situation exposes the double facade of identity issues in the globalized framework: the territoriality of nation-states versus the market economy that transcends traditional borders.
#### Towards a New Paradigm
The issue of Somaliland recognition must therefore be thought of not only in terms of diplomatic policies, but also in terms of socio-economic transformation and the redefinition of national identities. The United States, while seeking to counter Chinese influence, must keep in mind the lessons of the past regarding support for regimes or territories whose aspirations for self-determination may conflict with temporary strategic interests.
In sum, whether for security, economic, or ideological reasons, the recognition of Somaliland could mark a decisive turning point in the relations between the West and the Horn of Africa, highlighting fundamental questions about sovereignty and identity, but also the necessary shift towards a future focused on democratic and inclusive governance. The key lies in the ability of external powers to navigate these troubled waters sensitively, to transform strategic opportunities into lasting realities for the populations concerned.
Thus, more than just a diplomatic shift, recognizing Somaliland could become a symbol of a new paradigm, where respect for local aspirations and the search for multilateral cooperation take precedence over the old practices of realpolitik.