**Joseph Aoun: The General at the Helm of the Lebanese Ship in an Economic and Social Storm**
With the election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon, a country grappling with a multidimensional crisis, a glimmer of hope illuminates the dark horizon of a divided nation. This event is all the more significant as it ends a political vacuum of more than two years, marked by chronic instability and a range of challenges whose magnitude could seem overwhelming even for a seasoned leader.
First, it is worth considering the context in which Joseph Aoun takes office. Lebanon, once considered the “Paris of the Middle East”, is today faced with economic challenges that defy understanding. With inflation exceeding 200% in 2022 and a poverty rate reaching 80%, the major economic and social challenge is undoubtedly rebuilding the people’s trust in their institutions. Through the eyes of Maya Khadra, a keen observer of the Lebanese political scene, it appears that the election of Joseph Aoun could represent not only a change of figure, but also a turning point towards more effective governance.
**Governance Favored by a Military Leader?**
The rise of a general to the presidency inevitably raises questions about the strategic implications of his military profile. Aoun’s ability to manage the complexity of internal relations – shaped by deep sectarian divisions – is highlighted by a military history marked not only by the fight against external threats, but also by a know-how in crisis management. To illustrate this, a comparative analysis with other countries in the region where military figures have risen to power shows that leaders such as Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt, or Bashar al-Assad in Syria, have often been able to consolidate their power while navigating through political storms. However, these examples also underscore the challenges that this imposes in implementing democratic reforms.
For Joseph Aoun, the key to his success lies in his ability to transcend his military image and embody civil status and dialogue. His commitment to reconciliation and building a new political era in Lebanon is crucial. This is demonstrated by the model proposed by Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who was able to combine military sensitivity and civil responsibility to restore trust in institutions during crises. Joseph Aoun will therefore have to draw inspiration from such examples to avoid the pitfalls of authoritarianism that can arise from a military rise to power.
**From Economic Challenges to Prospects for Structural Reforms**
Economic challenges, while being at the top of the new president’s priorities, require bold and unprecedented measures. The Lebanese economy can be understood through the prism of an insolvency map. The country has not only lost its currency, but has also faced an erosion of its middle class, a dynamic that echoes recent global contexts where economic crises have generated catastrophic inequalities. In this regard, the implementation of structural reforms is essential to finance the country’s recovery.
For example, the Paris Agreement’s 2018 Reform Agenda, while promising, was not finalized due to a lack of political will. Joseph Aoun must position himself to rally a range of political actors around substantive reforms, including the implementation of progressive taxation and a serious fight against corruption. Such an approach could strengthen international support while promoting the creation of more balanced self-financing mechanisms.
**The International Perspective: A Crucial Assessment**
Finally, an essential dimension of Joseph Aoun’s mandate lies in the assessment of his ability to manage international relations. Lebanon, at the crossroads of influences, must maneuver astutely in a delicate geopolitical environment. The West’s support in the face of the Iranian threat represents a lever, but also a double-edged sword. By establishing a balance between his relations with Western powers and his Middle Eastern neighborhood, Aoun will have to avoid the pitfall of further polarizing the country on the international chessboard.
In short, Joseph Aoun’s election falls within a crucial and uncertain chapter in Lebanese history. If his military career gives him legitimacy, it is his ability to bring the Lebanese together in a common effort to rebuild the nation, redress the economy, and establish an environment of peace that will ultimately determine his presidential legacy. At a time when the fragility of these objectives is being tested, the hope of the Lebanese people rests on Joseph Aoun’s ability to transform their aspirations into realities.