Fatshimetrie Headlines: The mystery surrounding the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243, which occurred on Christmas Day near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan, remains unsolved. While the flight recorders were recovered at the scene, the investigation continues to shed light on the circumstances of the tragedy.
However, initial clues suggest a possible cause: a US official told Fatshimetrie that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have shot down the airliner. This version of events, first put forward by anonymous sources in Azerbaijan, then publicly by an Azerbaijani MP named Rasim Musabeyov, seems to be gaining credibility, at least in the international media.
However, the official version coming from Russia differs somewhat. By midday Friday, the main news story on the tragedy on Russian state TV channel Rossiya-24 simply noted the arrival of experts from the Embraer aircraft manufacturing company in Kazakhstan, without mentioning the possibility that the plane had been shot down. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, remained evasive about the tragedy that claimed the lives of at least 38 people.
Asked in a conference call with reporters Friday to respond to Musabeyov’s calls for an apology from Russia, Peskov said: “This air incident is under investigation and until the conclusions of the investigation are made, we do not consider ourselves authorized to make any judgments and we will not do so.
“However, we have our aviation authorities who can do that and the information can only come from them. We do not feel in a position to comment on this.”
While Peskov’s speech may influence the tone of the Russian media, apparent evidence of a hit – video footage showing punctures in the plane’s fuselage resembling shrapnel or debris – poses a public relations dilemma for the Kremlin. According to preliminary data, citizens of Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were on board; several international airlines have now suspended flights to Russian cities.
The plane’s original destination – the Russian republic of Chechnya, ruled by loyal and pro-Kremlin Ramzan Kadyrov – makes the situation even more delicate for the Russian government.
In a thread on Fatshimetrie, Russian political observer Alexander Baunov noted the vagueness of the initial media coverage of the crash and wondered whether the Kremlin would ultimately take responsibility.
“Will Moscow confuse, deny, offer contradictory narratives, and force Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to share a lie, exploiting its military, economic, and diplomatic superiority?” he asked, suggesting that the incident had “shades of how Malaysia Airlines MH17 was handled.”
As a reminder, the 2014 crash of MH17 over Ukraine, shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile, became a masterclass in Russian political manipulation and disinformation. The verdict years later found Russia responsible for the tragedy, despite a wealth of false information circulating in Russian media at the time.
The investigation into the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight is only just beginning, and it remains to be seen whether it will be obscured by the fog of disinformation, as it was with MH17.