Fatshimetrie
The recent crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432 in Kazakhstan has sparked allegations of a missile strike, raising questions about the potential involvement of Russian air defense systems.
The Embraer 190 plane took off from Baku, Azerbaijan, on Wednesday morning, bound for Grozny in Russia’s North Caucasus region. However, it veered off course over the Caspian Sea and attempted an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Unfortunately, the plane crashed about 3 kilometers from Aktau, killing 38 people and injuring the 29 survivors.
The exact circumstances of the crash remain unclear, but preliminary data and expert analysis point to the involvement of external factors.
Missile Strike Allegations
Independent Russian military expert Yan Matveyev suggested that evidence at the crash site indicates damage consistent with shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile, specifically the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system.
Matveyev said:
“It appears that the tail section of the aircraft was damaged by missile fragments.”
He noted that Ukrainian drone activity over Grozny at the time of the incident could have triggered the Pantsir system. Shrapnel from an explosive missile could have struck the aircraft, leading to its subsequent crash.
Matveyev also questioned why the crew chose to continue flying over the Caspian Sea instead of attempting a landing at a closer Russian airport.
“It remains a big question why the crew decided to fly over the sea, when the aircraft was clearly damaged, instead of landing somewhere in Russia.”
Government sources told Euronews that the plane had requested an emergency landing at several Russian airports but was apparently denied, forcing the pilots to continue on to Aktau.
Contradictory Statements
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev warned against jumping to conclusions, blaming the crash on adverse weather conditions that sent the plane off course. Meanwhile, Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, cited a bird strike as the likely cause of the emergency.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the missile claims as speculation, saying:
“It would be wrong to make assumptions before the investigators deliver their verdict.”
Kazakhstani parliament speaker Maulen Ashimbayev echoed the sentiment, urging caution and calling the missile strike claims unfounded.
If confirmed, it would be the second time in a decade that Russian forces have been involved in the downing of a passenger plane.. In 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine by a Russian-made missile, killing all 298 people on board.
Azerbaijan observed a day of mourning on Thursday, with flags flying at half-mast and a national moment of silence to honor the victims.
This tragic event raises major concerns about aviation safety and the potential militarization of airspace. Ongoing investigations will provide crucial answers to establish the truth and ensure such tragedies do not happen again.