**Fatshimetrie**
Economic projections for the year 2024 have raised global concerns about the health of the global economy. According to the reports for the year in question, a stagnation of the global economy was observed, influenced by economic, geopolitical and climatic challenges, as well as an increase in bank interest rates, and the repercussions of the wars in Israel and Ukraine.
The Cabinet’s Information and Decision Support Center highlighted that, despite tight monetary policies, the global economy managed to maintain its resilience in 2024 and avoided an imminent recession. IMF estimates indicate a slight decline in overall growth, from 3.3% in 2023 to 3.2% in 2024/2025.
According to UNCTAD forecasts, global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above the 2.5% threshold generally associated with a recession. This marks the third consecutive year of growth below the pre-pandemic rate, which averaged 3.2% between 2015 and 2019.
Forecasts indicate that economic growth in the United States will slow from 2.9% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024, and then decline further to 2.2% in 2025. In the euro area, growth is projected to increase from 0.4% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. For the United Kingdom, growth is expected to slow to 1.1% in 2024, compared to 0.3% in 2023.
In Japan, growth is expected to slow to 0.3% in 2024, compared to 1.7% in 2023. In Canada, the economy is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024, reaching 2.4% in 2025.
According to the report, rating agency Standard & Poor’s predicts that Japan’s economy will recover in 2025, with growth close to 1%, while the UK’s will grow by 1.5%. As a major emerging market, India is expected to contribute significantly to global growth, with growth estimated at 7% or less in the coming years. The economies of Brazil and Mexico are expected to grow by around 2% in 2025, while South Africa’s economy is expected to grow by around 1.5%.
These figures reflect a complex economic landscape and challenges for different economic actors around the world. In the face of these estimates, it is essential that policymakers, businesses and citizens remain vigilant and responsive to ensure sustainable and balanced economic growth.