The tripartite meeting between Presidents Félix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Paul Kagame of Rwanda and João Lourenço of Angola, which was to be held this Sunday in Luanda, was the focus of all attention. Unfortunately, this long-awaited meeting to resolve hostilities in eastern DRC took an unexpected turn. Indeed, due to the refusal of the Rwandan delegation to participate in this meeting, it turned into bilateral discussions between the Congolese and Angolan presidents. This new episode highlights the deep divergences that persist between Kinshasa and Kigali.
Tensions broke out into the open during the preparatory ministerial meeting held in Luanda. Kinshasa stated that Rwanda was conditioning the signing of an agreement on the holding of a direct dialogue between Kinshasa and the M23 rebel group, described as terrorist by the DRC. Such a proposal was vigorously rejected by the Congolese side, which refuses any negotiation with an armed group accused of war crimes and supported by Kigali.
For its part, Kigali maintains its position by insisting on the need to resolve the crisis through direct discussions with the rebels from the marginalized Congolese Tutsi community. Rwanda also accuses the DRC of diverting attention from the real issues, in particular the presence of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) which Kigali considers an existential threat.
The situation has become even more acrimonious following the inflammatory statements of President Félix Tshisekedi concerning what he calls the “premeditated repopulation” of strategic Congolese territories by foreign populations implanted by Rwanda. These accusations were echoed by the DRC Foreign Minister, Therese Kayikwamba Wagner, during a session of the UN Security Council, thus exacerbating the mistrust between the two countries.
In response, Kigali strongly called these statements xenophobic and recalled conspiracy theories such as the “great replacement”. Rwanda also rejected the accusations of support for the M23, stressing that Kinshasa is using Kigali as a scapegoat to mask its own shortcomings.
This impasse at the tripartite reflects the difficulties encountered by the Luanda and Nairobi processes, which are supposed to work together to restore peace in eastern DRC. The facilitator of the Nairobi process, President Uhuru Kenyatta, recently stressed that the M23 had abandoned the negotiating table in favour of the armed solution, further complicating the situation.
As João Lourenço struggles to maintain a fragile balance between the two sides, the lack of consensus on the conditions for dialogue with the armed groups and mutual accusations of ceasefire violations are hampering any meaningful progress..
In this context, the population of eastern DRC is left to fend for itself, facing an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe. The increased control of the M23 over key territories such as Masisi, Rutshuru and Lubero, as well as recent attacks such as the bombing of a school in Luofu, only worsen an already precarious situation.
The DRC has called on the international community to put pressure on Kigali to respect its commitments. The Congolese Minister of Foreign Affairs urged the UN Security Council to firmly support the Luanda process and demand the immediate withdrawal of Rwandan troops from Congolese soil.
While the positions of Kinshasa and Kigali seem frozen, the peace process remains fragmented and eastern DRC remains an unstable region. It is now up to João Lourenço and Uhuru Kenyatta, as facilitators, to redouble their efforts to bring the parties back to the negotiating table and avoid an escalation of violence.
In conclusion, the path to peace and stability in this already devastated region is fraught with pitfalls and the prospects for conflict resolution seem increasingly distant. As long as dissensions persist between the actors involved, the population of eastern DRC will continue to pay the high price of this devastating conflict.