The fall of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president in office since 2000, has long been an unlikely scenario in international political circles. However, with the ongoing evolution of the conflict in Syria and the intensification of international pressure, this possibility seems increasingly realistic.
Bashar al-Assad, who comes from a family that has been in power for decades, has maintained his position through authoritarian management of the country. His regime has been marked by flagrant violations of human rights, brutal repression of all forms of dissent, and massive use of violence to maintain power.
Yet, despite having seemed unshakeable for many years, the fall of Bashar al-Assad now seems possible. International pressure is intensifying, with many Western and regional powers calling for his departure. Moreover, the economic and social situation in Syria is deteriorating, fueling popular discontent and strengthening opposition movements.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad would have major consequences for the Middle East region and beyond. Syria is a key player in many regional conflicts, and its instability could cause a domino effect across the region. Moreover, Assad’s departure would open the way to an uncertain political transition, with risks of chaos and increased violence.
In this context, it is crucial for the international community to manage the post-Assad Syria in an informed and strategic manner. A peaceful and inclusive transition, involving all Syrian actors, is essential to avoid chaos and disintegration of the country. However, this will require unprecedented international coordination and the ability to overcome the divergent interests of the different powers involved in the Syrian conflict.
Ultimately, the fall of Bashar al-Assad remains a complex and uncertain scenario, but increasingly plausible. It is time for the international community to prepare for this eventuality and act proactively to avoid the worst-case scenario in Syria.