The conflict in Syria continues to rage, with a rebel offensive seriously threatening the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The recent rebel advance in the north of the country, with the capture of Aleppo and Hama, two strategic cities, is jeopardizing the position of the government in place. This offensive, led by an Islamist group, raises major geopolitical issues and could upset the balance of power in the region.
The rebels are now stating their intention to continue their advance southward, towards Homs and possibly Damascus, the Syrian capital. In a recent interview, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former al-Qaeda fighter now leading the rebellion, made it clear that the ultimate goal is to overthrow the regime in place, and that they are prepared to use any means necessary to achieve this.
This rebel offensive is raising concerns among various regional and international actors. While the fall of Assad may be seen as a victory by some, it could also have unintended and undesirable consequences. Western countries, Arab states, and Israel want to limit Iran’s influence in Syria, but fear the emergence of a radical Islamist regime to replace the current one.
Russia, a staunch ally of Syria, risks losing a key partner in the Middle East and seeing its ability to exert influence weakened, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. Similarly, Iran would see its “Axis of Resistance,” made up of allied countries and militias, seriously shaken by the fall of the Syrian regime.
Arab countries, which initially supported the rebels, now appear to be reconsidering their position. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, once opposed to Assad, now seem inclined to support the current regime in the face of the rebellion. This development reflects the ongoing geopolitical upheavals in the Middle East and the divergent interests of the various regional actors.
In sum, the rebel offensive in Syria raises major challenges and highlights the rivalries and conflicting interests that drive the region. The outcome of this conflict will have repercussions not only in Syria, but also in the entire Middle East and beyond. It is crucial for international actors to find a peaceful and lasting solution to this conflict, in order to avoid an uncontrollable escalation with disastrous consequences.