At a recent NATO summit in Brussels, the upcoming U.S. presidential election loomed large over discussions among the alliance’s defense chiefs. As NATO allies brace for a possible decline in U.S. support for Ukraine in the coming year if Donald Trump wins, countries including Iran, North Korea and China are stepping up military aid to Russia.
In a closed-door meeting with his counterparts at NATO on Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin addressed the upcoming election in response to questions from allies about its potential impact on aid to Ukraine. He stressed that while it is impossible to predict the future, bipartisan support for Ukraine remains in Congress, according to people familiar with the meeting.
NATO officials are preparing for a possible U.S. withdrawal.
“The United States is unlikely to continue to shoulder a disproportionate burden in supporting Ukraine,” a senior NATO official said Thursday. That’s why the secretary general wants NATO to take the lead in security assistance, rather than letting an ally shoulder the responsibility alone.
“Europe needs to step up even more,” the official added.
A Trump victory calls into question the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine. The former president declined last month to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war and called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “salesman” who “should never have let this war start.”
The current situation in Ukraine has some officials worried. Russia continues to make tactical gains in Ukraine, outgunning the Ukrainians three times on the battlefield, with a “considerable” advantage in personnel and munitions in this difficult winter. President Joe Biden continues to resist allowing Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia, a policy that many NATO officials oppose.
“No one can dispute that there are valid, legal targets in Russia that would have battlefield impact for Ukraine,” a NATO official said. “Ukraine needs to have a range of capabilities to target them.”
Secretary Austin suggested Friday that cheap, long-range drones made by Ukraine were a better option for hitting targets in Russia, such as munitions depots, than expensive, precision-guided missiles. “Drones have proven to be very effective and accurate,” he said.
In a broader context, uncertainty over the future role of the United States has prompted NATO to strengthen its authority in training Ukrainian troops and providing military aid, giving Europe greater control if aid slows or stops under a Trump administration. However, that mechanism, known as NATO Security and Training Assistance for Ukraine, is not yet fully operational and will take several more months, another NATO official said Friday.
At the same time, European countries are looking to increase production of key weapons and equipment, not only to maintain aid to Ukraine if the United States withdraws its support, but also to ensure their own security in the face of the Russian threat.
Russia produces about 3 million rounds of ammunition a year, while NATO collectively produces less than 2 million annually, NATO officials said Thursday. This is a significant increase from a few years ago, but still falls short of Ukraine’s needs.
The West is unlikely to catch up with the Russians in the short term. The issue of Ukraine’s long-term security remains critical, and efforts are underway to secure permanent funding for the Ukrainian military and its reconstruction. Despite the obstacles, the Biden administration is working to provide sustainable support to Ukraine, investing significantly in the Ukrainian defense industry to enable it to produce its own munitions.
While the stakes remain high, it is crucial that Western partners remain engaged and united in supporting Ukraine in this complex conflict. The current situation requires a long-term strategy and concerted measures to ensure security and stability in the region.