Fatshimetry
Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, recently struck an unusually subdued tone as he addressed his people this week, hinting at a possible willingness to negotiate with Russia for the first time since the launch of the full-scale invasion by Moscow more than two years ago.
Zelensky suggested that Moscow should send a delegation to the next peace summit it hopes to hold in November. Russia was not invited to the previous peace conference held in Switzerland last month, with Zelensky saying any talks could only take place after a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
Currently, Kyiv faces a dual challenge, with a difficult situation on the front lines and political uncertainty over the level of future support from Ukraine’s closest allies.
While Russian troop advances in eastern Ukraine have slowed significantly since U.S. weapons arrived in the country in May, they have not stopped completely. Russia continues to gain ground, although at a much slower pace.
At the same time, questions are being raised about the willingness of some of Ukraine’s closest and most important allies – notably the United States and Germany – to continue pouring resources into the conflict in support of Kyiv .
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Zelensky said Ukraine was not receiving enough Western assistance to win the war, emphasizing that its outcome will be determined far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
“The outcome of the war does not depend only on us. We know what would be a just end to the war, but it does not depend only on us. It depends not only on our people and our will, but also on the finances, weapons, political support, unity within the EU, NATO, in the world,” the president said.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst said it was plausible that Zelensky’s change in tone was a reaction to events in the United States, where former President Donald Trump announced Monday a critical fierce about sending aid to Ukraine, JD Vance, as his running mate.
According to Herbst, it is possible that Zelensky will try to reach out to a possible future Trump administration by emphasizing that he would be willing to negotiate – as long as the proposed deal is fair.
“It must be a reasonable peace, which does not allow the Russian occupiers to continue to torture, repress and kill the people of occupied Ukraine,” he said. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Russia has repeatedly denied accusations of torture and human rights abuses in Ukraine.
Trump and Zelensky had a phone call Friday that Trump called ‘very good’.
The former president said he would “bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives,” while Zelensky said they discussed “some steps that could make peace just and truly sustainable.
Unacceptable terms
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said in recent months that he would be ready to negotiate with Ukraine, although on terms completely unacceptable to Ukraine and its Western allies.
Putin said Russia would end its war in Ukraine if Kyiv ceded all of four regions claimed by Moscow: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Large swaths of these regions remain under Ukrainian control, so he is essentially asking Ukraine to cede territory without a fight. Putin also said any peace deal would require Ukraine to abandon its bid for NATO membership, prompting Kyiv to call the proposal “contrary to common sense.”
Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, said that given Putin’s public demands, Zelensky’s words were likely intended to send a message to the rest of the world.
“It is both a signal to Russia and a signal to the Global South that Ukraine is not an obstructive force. It is ready to sit down at the negotiating table. But this cannot be entirely up to Russian terms, and this cannot lead to Ukraine capitulating to Russia…Putin is demanding control of regions he cannot conquer militarily,” she told CNN.
Lutsevych believes Putin has stepped up his calls for negotiation because he knows his window of opportunity could be closing.
Despite its considerable size and power compared to Ukraine, Russia failed to achieve its territorial goals – even when Kyiv received only limited aid from the West. Moscow’s initial attempt to take the capital ended in defeat and the front lines have not moved much for more than a year.
Uncertainty ahead
New U.S. military aid began reaching front lines in Ukraine in May, after months of delays due to political gridlock in the U.S. Congress. At the same time, Ukraine has finally received permission from a few Western nations to use their weapons to strike targets inside Russia – although only in limited circumstances and near the border with Russia. Ukraine.
This helped slow Russian progress and avoid a possible reoccupation of the Kharkiv region.