Formal negotiations for the accession of Ukraine and Moldova to the European Union began on Tuesday, marking a historic turning point for these two former Soviet Union countries. This process, although promising, promises to be long and complex, with major challenges to face.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed the start of accession negotiations, saying it was excellent news for the citizens of these two countries as well as for the European Union as a whole. She emphasized that despite the challenges ahead, there will be many opportunities along the road ahead.
Both countries’ applications for EU membership date back to 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Although the EU has largely supported Ukraine and allocated more than $100 billion according to EU figures, the path to EU membership for these two countries will not be without pitfalls.
Hungary, Russia’s main ally in the EU, has dragged its feet on several issues regarding Ukraine, including military and financial aid. In December last year, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he would block Kyiv’s bid to begin accession talks. Although he eventually dropped his objections, Orban will still have plenty of opportunities to obstruct the process.
The path to full EU membership requires candidates to meet a set of criteria before entering detailed negotiations, covering a variety of areas from economic standards to the rule of law. There are 35 chapters in total, all of which must be agreed by all negotiating parties, including the 27 EU member states. The process of opening, negotiating and closing the 35 chapters is expected to take more than a decade for Moldova and Ukraine.
Furthermore, neither country has yet met the criteria necessary to reach this phase of negotiations. For Ukraine in particular, meeting the required standards is particularly complicated due to the invasion and ongoing war.
Moldova also faces domestic difficulties, with the self-proclaimed territory of Transnistria seeking to ally itself with Russia while the rest of the country turns towards Europe. Although Transnistria is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, it is possible that some see this situation as an obstacle to EU membership until the problem is resolved.
Aside from the practical and technical negotiations, there is a political dimension that promises to further complicate the talks. The bloc’s enlargement towards eastern Europe will have repercussions on other EU member states. Ukraine and Moldova are likely to benefit significantly from the EU budget, making the prospect of membership a harder sell for existing member states, whose spending will increase while their overall share of the budget declines.
There will also be impacts on the industry. For example, Ukraine has already had problems with its European partners regarding its agricultural industry. Poland, one of Ukraine’s most consistent supporters in its war effort, temporarily banned Ukraine from exporting grain to the country, hurting Polish farmers. The dispute has intensified, with Poland suspending its military support for Ukraine.
Accepting Ukraine and Moldova into the bloc would mean adding around 40 million new EU citizens to Eastern Europe. This would mean free movement within the bloc for many people seeking to escape what has recently been a war zone.
This would also have consequences for the balance of power within the EU, shifting it further eastwards. Although there are no strict rules on which member states align on which issues, it is reasonable to say that Eastern countries have different political views than Southern and Eastern countries. Western Europe.
This means that some current EU member states could slow down and hamper the process unless safeguards are put in place to protect their privileged positions within the bloc.
The launch of the negotiations represents an important moment for those wishing to join the EU to further distance themselves from Russian influence and move closer to the European Union. However, in reality, these opening talks are mostly symbolic and there is still a long way to go before any of these countries become a full member state.