The agricultural sector is at the heart of the global economy, with monthly reports such as the United States Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates being closely scrutinized by agricultural market participants around the world. These reports provide annual forecasts for the supply and utilization of commodities such as corn, wheat, rice, soybeans and other grains and oilseeds, providing a detailed view of these commodities in the United States and in the world.
The May report presented the first estimates for the 2024-2025 season, but this data should be taken with caution, as it is still preliminary, with the season having just started in the Northern Hemisphere and coming to an end in the Southern hemisphere. Additionally, weather forecasts predict a return of the La Niña weather event for the 2024-2025 season. This phenomenon will impact regions of the globe differently, with heavy rains in some regions such as Southern Africa and drier conditions in South America, depending on its intensity.
Despite these weather uncertainties, early projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture look positive for the upcoming harvest. Global corn production for the 2024-2025 season is estimated at 1.2 billion tonnes, down slightly from the previous year, mainly due to a planned shift from corn plantings to soybeans in some regions of the United States. -United States and lower harvests in Argentina and Ukraine.
Similarly, global wheat production for the same season is forecast at 798 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season, with larger harvests expected in Canada, Australia, the United States, Kazakhstan and China. As for global rice and soybean production for 2024-2025, it is also expected to be increasing, notably due to forecasts of large harvests in Asia, Brazil, Argentina and the United States.
These initial estimates suggest an optimistic outlook for grains and oilseeds globally for the coming season. If these forecasts come true, inventories will continue to improve, thus maintaining moderate prices for the consumer. However, these data should be taken with caution, as they largely depend on future weather conditions.
In conclusion, weather forecasts for the upcoming season will play a crucial role in expectations for agricultural production and commodity prices. If La Niña is not too intense, we may see a good grain and oilseed harvest in 2024-2025. It is critical to closely monitor this production data over the coming months and remain attentive to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s assessment of the impact of weather conditions.
In a world where agriculture plays a major role, this information is crucial for market players and consumers. So let’s wait and see how climatic events will unfold and what influence they will have on global agricultural production in the months to come.