Let us reflect on the devastating impact of torrential rains and floods in Kenya. Since March, the country has experienced a series of natural disasters that are among the deadliest in recent years. With at least 169 lives lost and 91 people missing, the numbers are dizzying.
The most tragic recent tragedy was the death of at least 48 people following a flash flood caused by the bursting of a blocked tunnel under a railway line in southwest Kenya. The rains created chaos that displaced more than 190,000 people and damaged critical infrastructure.
These extreme weather events are the result of a convergence of factors, combining the country’s seasonal weather patterns, human-caused climate change as well as natural weather phenomena.
When examining the rainy seasons in Kenya, it is essential to understand the cycle of “long rains” from March to May, which account for the majority of the annual rainfall. These rains, often torrential, can continue until June. According to the Kenya Meteorological Department’s forecast for this “long rains” season, intensified rainfall was expected in many areas, with risks of localized storms and flash flooding.
The previous year, the “short rains” season was marked by violent storms in several regions, particularly in November. Some counties, such as Lamu, Mombasa and Garissa, had received almost three times the long-term average rainfall, according to the meteorological department.
Why are these rains so intense this time? Variations in the frequency, patterns and intensity of rainfall in Kenya are influenced by natural climate systems such as the Indian Ocean Oscillation. This phenomenon causes changes in ocean surface temperature that can generate periods of heavy rain in some regions and droughts in others.
Despite misperceptions linking current floods to the El Niño weather phenomenon, research reveals that this climatic event has little influence on rainfall in East Africa during the “long rains” season. According to Joyce Kimutai, associate researcher at Imperial College London, it is rather the Indian Ocean Oscillation and climate change which explain these torrential rains.
Warmer oceans caused by rising atmospheric temperatures promote evaporation, leading to more intense precipitation. This trend was confirmed in an analysis conducted last December, showing that climate change had made the previous year’s “short rains” season up to twice as intense in regions like Kenya.
When will the “long rains” end? With increasing variability in dry and wet seasons, long-term weather prediction in Kenya has become difficult. The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts “long rains” to continue until June.
In its latest seven-day weather forecast, released on Monday, the department announced continued rainfall in several parts of the country, with heavy downpours expected in six regions, as well as risks of flooding in low-lying areas and landslides. of terrain on steep slopes.
These extreme weather events should prompt us to think more about the impact of climate change on our planet and take concrete steps to mitigate its devastating effects. The tragedies caused by the floods in Kenya are unfortunately not an isolated case, but they remind us of the urgency of protecting our environment for the future of all.