South Africa’s political landscape is in flux, with upcoming elections that could result in the ANC losing its majority and forming a coalition government. Current trends appear to indicate a significant shift in party and ideological alignment.
On the positive side, we are witnessing a gradual shift from a now outdated national liberation movement towards a more rational convergence of parties and ideologies. National liberation movements always encompass the full spectrum of national politics, and the ANC is no exception, incorporating liberals, social democrats, communists, conservative nationalists and kleptocratic elements.
The political landscape is beginning to take shape around more coherent alignments, with a spectrum from liberalism to conservatism coalescing around the Multiple Party Charter, where the Democratic Party (DA) is the main liberal actor and the Freedom Party of Inkatha (IFP) the main conservative actor.
Although the IFP is losing support to Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, it could play a significant role in a coalition government in KwaZulu-Natal, but it is the DA which will be the major player at the level national.
Among the new political actors in the liberal space, such as Musi Maimane with Build One South Africa, Songezo Zibi with Rise Mzansi or the project of (large white entrepreneurs) Change Starts Now presented by Roger Jardine, none seem to offer real prospects important. Although Change Starts Now has apparently received a billion rand investment from big business, no analysts think it is likely to win a seat in parliament.
The electoral movement of activist Zackie Achmat also seems to be running out of steam.
Zibi nevertheless proposes a certain social democracy in his program and shows himself ready to break with the West and its local allies to oppose the genocide broadcast live from Gaza. But overall, the liberal to conservative fringe of our politics is pro-business and offers no real benefits for the majority of poor and working people.
What was once the ANC faction describing itself as “radical economic transformation” (RET) is now largely grouped with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the MK party. In KwaZulu-Natal, the MK party is gaining votes from the EFF but a post-election alliance seems inevitable. The politics of this part of our political spectrum is a populist and authoritarian form of kleptocratic nationalism.
Hostile to constitutionalism and the rule of law, this faction would not tolerate dissent if in power and would establish a violent kleptocracy legitimized in the name of pseudo-radical populist nationalism. This is by far the most serious threat to our democracy, and the fact that some of the more outlandish Trotskyist sects see the EFF as a left-wing party is a stunning political error of judgment.
If the ANC received less than 50% of the vote, there would be a serious danger that it would ally itself with the EFF and the MK party faction. It would throw the economy into turmoil, intensify kleptocratic politics beyond the level of the Gupta years, significantly worsen state repression, and plunge the country into a crisis that could take decades to resolve.
The fact that Malema wants to bring back the managers who looted Eskom is a clear indication of the nightmare that would be imposed on our country if the EFF/MK project to restore kleptocracy gains significant influence.
The claim that Zuma is a man of the people is laughable. During his mandate, he carried out a program of brazen plunder, often accompanied by state repression, and not a program of land reform and redistribution to the poorest. It destroyed key social institutions rather than redirecting them toward social ends. Zuma’s policies resemble those of Mobutu Sese Seko more than those of Lula da Silva or Evo Morales.
Much like the liberal to conservative side of our politics, the authoritarian kleptocratic side sees a growing number of small players such as the African Transformation Movement (ATM) and the Abantu Batho Congress. The crass Gupta propagandist, Andile Mngxitama, ever the opportunist, is also looking for a way to get back into the game by aligning himself with the RET faction. But there are only two real players here – Zuma’s MK party and Malema’s EFF, which now includes the sinister figure of Carl Niehaus.
The third major pole of our politics is of course the ANC. She is not entirely devoid of her kleptocratic faction. The fact that she chose disgraced former eThekwini mayor Zandile Gumede to lead her campaign in KwaZulu-Natal is a very clear indication of this. With the likes of Fikile Mbalula continuing to speak out loudly and Cyril Ramaphosa’s propensity for inaction and simplistic rhetoric, the ANC has a major credibility problem. Nevertheless, with impressive figures such as Naledi Pando and Zane Dangor, and despite Ramaphosa’s weaknesses as a leader, incremental progress towards building a more functional state is being made, albeit slowly.