When it comes to political news, it is often difficult to miss the Donald Trump phenomenon. His impact on the American political scene has been so strong and controversial that he has captivated the attention of media and pundits since entering politics in 2015. But it’s time to look at another key player in the upcoming election American presidential election: Joe Biden and his supporters.
As Trump dominates the Republican primaries and prepares for a potential White House rematch, it’s important to understand that it’s the voters who chose Biden in 2020 who could decide the outcome of the general election in November. These voters, from diverse groups, represent a key electoral base for Biden. Their level of enthusiasm and evolving policy priorities will determine the final outcome.
Democratic political operators recognize that Biden faces a difficult mission. The former president’s supporters are enthusiastic and ready to fight. In addition, he has a much more solid political machine than in 2016 or 2020, which will allow him to try to expand his Republican electorate. However, local Republican officials predict that Biden’s hopes will be complicated by the return of many Republicans who were repelled by the former president’s behavior in 2020 but now view his presidency more favorably and are put off by what they consider to be a left-wing drift by the current president.
Trump’s rise, which is remarkable given the legal threats to him and his attacks on democracy in 2021, coincides with growing concern among Democrats about the durability of the base of support that carried Biden to office. White House three years ago. This time, Biden faces the complications of his position as incumbent, where he will be judged on his own record, unlike in 2020 when he exploited the chaotic management of the pandemic by a president who questioned his voice. high if injecting disinfectant could cure Covid-19.
If Trump poses an existential threat to free elections in the United States, as his critics claim, Biden must mobilize voters in the traditional Democratic coalition as well as other groups to beat him again. The fact that an unpopular president’s support base is cracking or becoming less actively engaged has caused alarm among his supporters and given encouragement to Trump.
In recent days, Biden has been interrupted at public events by protesters demanding a ceasefire in Gaza, literally hampering his campaign message. This anger crystallizes the alienation of some progressive, young and Arab-American voters – important elements of Biden’s re-election campaign in key states – over his support for Israel’s response to Hamas terrorist attacks . These voters’ decision not to morally support Biden because of this issue alone could have a significant impact.
Quentin Fulks, Biden’s deputy campaign manager, said shortly after Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire primary that the current president has a much broader and more powerful base than his potential opponent.
“We should not forget how President Biden defeated Trump in 2020. By bringing together a diverse coalition including voters of color, young voters, suburban voters including women, and making progress with rural and white workers in key states,” Fulks said. “The Republican primaries clearly demonstrated that while Donald Trump has the unanimous support of his MAGA base, he is struggling to make himself acceptable to those key voting groups who will ultimately decide the outcome of the election in November.”
Incumbency, that is, being in power, adds additional complexity for Biden. Every decision a president makes, whether domestic or international, can result in backlash. Successful presidents must constantly balance and mitigate the effects of their often contradictory actions taken in the national interest or to advance their own policy positions.
For example, Biden’s attempt to erase tens of billions of dollars in student debt, which has been obstructed at times by the courts, is popular with young progressive and minority voters who are saddled with federal loan debt. However, Republicans, seeking to gain ground among traditionally Democratic working-class voters, accuse such programs of being discriminatory giveaways to American workers who lack a college education.
Biden also faces a painful political dilemma as he tries to strike a deal with Republicans to resolve the crisis at the southern border. Accepting what liberals see as draconian restrictions on asylum would be seen as a betrayal of their principles. On the other hand, failing to take bold action to combat climate change risks demoralizing progressive voters and young people. Republican candidates are already exploiting public skepticism about the use and reach of electric vehicles in some key states.
In conclusion, although Trump is attracting a lot of attention as the frontrunner in the Republican primaries, the real key to the next US presidential election may well be the diverse voters who chose Biden in 2020. Their enthusiasm and evolving policy priorities will come into play. a determining role in the outcome of the elections in November. Biden must mobilize these essential voters, who represent the traditional Democratic coalition set, as well as other groups to support him against Trump. As the election campaign heats up, it’s critical to watch for signs of crumbling or disengaging support, as they could have a significant impact on the final outcome.