The ANC is preparing to celebrate its 112th anniversary on Saturday January 8, facing the greatest threat to its political hegemony in South Africa since it came to power in 1994.
Not only has its electoral support declined significantly in recent elections since its peak in 2004, but it also faces competition from another dissident movement in the upcoming elections, namely the uMkhonto weSizwe party of the former President Jacob Zuma.
And although President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to focus on the ongoing problems of power cuts, poor delivery of basic services, corruption and high unemployment in his statement, analysts say it is unlikely to have any real effect on voters in national and provincial elections later this year.
Historically, the declaration has been used by the ANC to present its program of action for the coming year. This dates back to the time of his exile, when the declaration was communicated on his Radio Freedom to members and supporters inside South Africa.
In the post-apartheid context, the declaration allowed the ANC to take stock of the successes and failures of the past year and identify its political priorities for the next 12 months.
According to political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast, the declaration is likely to focus on national issues such as poverty, unemployment and inequality in the country. These are the main national concerns that endanger democracy.
He added that the issue of Eskom would also feature prominently in the statement, with continued load shedding being a priority for the Ramaphosa administration – and the party – ahead of the election.
The slow pace of service delivery, particularly in ANC-run municipalities, should also feature in the discourse.
“The issue of corruption will also be highlighted,” he added.
The party is also under pressure from its alliance partners, trade union federation COSATU and the South African Communist Party, to combat factionalism and restore order to its ranks.
During last year’s January 8 celebrations in the Free State, COSATU president Zingiswa Losi urged Ramaphosa to tackle factionalism within the party and find a solution to power cuts if he hopes to win the elections. elections.
These issues are also expected to be addressed in Ramaphosa’s speech.
Losi also said that on the international stage, the declaration would focus on Israel’s genocidal war against the Palestinians.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Thursday began examining South Africa’s genocide case against Israel.
South Africa launched proceedings at the ICJ last month over allegations of genocide over its reprisal attacks against Hamas in Gaza since October 7, which left at least 23,000 Palestinian civilians killed.
“The request initiated by the ANC to the ICJ, asking to examine the genocide committed by Israel against the Palestinian people, will be highlighted because it is a very important issue.
“They may also want to address other issues of human rights and conflicts that have taken place on the continent,” Breakfast said.
However, according to Breakfast, the January 8 declaration will not influence voters’ voting behavior because they have probably already made up their minds about their vote.
The damage has already been done and cannot be undone. “We must not lie to ourselves and pretend that the ANC will win. The ANC will not win – the signs are there,” he said.
“There have been numerous scientific studies showing that the ANC will not reach the required 50% threshold. Those who claim they will win with an overwhelming majority are deluding themselves.”
Political analyst Susan Booysen said the president would have a difficult task: showing the progress the ANC has made, what the party has to offer and what it has achieved in recent years.
She said the statement was the unofficial launch of the ANC’s election campaign and she has no doubt it will influence voters’ perceptions for the next six months.
Booysen added that she did not think the ANC had anything new to offer voters.
“Voters are looking for a party they believe has a chance of achieving their expectations.”
However, despite the difficulties it faces, the ANC remains the