The end of French involvement in the Sahel and the clash between military regimes and jihadist groups constitute current issues which raise many questions. The withdrawal of French forces after a long standoff with military authorities in Niamey marks a major turning point in the fight against terrorism in the region.
Since 2013, France has been present in the Sahel with Operation Barkhane, deploying up to 5,500 men in cooperation with the Malian, Burkinabe and Nigerien armies. However, recent coups in these three countries have led to a demand for French forces to leave, resulting in a significant loss of Western influence in the region.
This situation calls into question the role of European and American partners in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel. European countries could opt for military and security cooperation based on bilateral agreements, while the United States could review its support which was mainly focused on supporting French operations.
In this context, Russia could become the new key player in the region. The Russian paramilitary group Wagner has already established its presence in Mali and has become the target of jihadist groups’ operations and communications. Although the presence of Russian instructors and trainers in the region remains unclear, Russian-Nigerian partnerships have recently been signed.
However, the Russian model is controversial. While Russia can offer some stability to existing military regimes, it is unlikely that the Wagner Group can make a real difference without the cooperation of local militaries. Additionally, Wagner’s lucrative gold mining activities could fuel tensions and strengthen conflicts.
The future of the fight against jihadist groups in the Sahel will therefore depend on the confrontation between jihadists linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and the military regimes in the region. The creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in September, committing member states to fight terrorism, highlights the importance of the military response.
However, some experts believe that the political aspects of the fight against jihadists are being neglected in favor of the military response. The question of negotiations with jihadists could be a point of opening, although this prospect is still taboo for Western countries. However, there is still a long way to go towards joint negotiations between the ESA member states.
In conclusion, the end of French involvement in the Sahel opens the way to a new dynamic in the fight against terrorism in the region. The clash between military regimes and jihadist groups will dictate the future of security in the Sahel. However, it is essential not to neglect the political aspects of the fight against terrorism and to find a balance between the military response and possible negotiations with the jihadists.