News: Egypt’s ‘red lines’ in Ethiopian Renaissance Dam conflict
Egyptian presidential candidate Hazem Omar recently addressed the subject of “red lines” in the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) conflict, warning that Egypt would be prepared to resort to “hard force” if Ethiopia crossed them.
In an interview with MBC Masr TV, Omar said his “water security agenda” includes negotiation as a way forward, but he would also be prepared to use “hard force ” if necessary.
He continued: “We must set our red lines so that everyone knows them, because when our partners know our red lines, there is no attempt to cross them, because once crossed, there is no more negotiations or understanding, and my duty as president is to protect the Egyptian people’s right to life.”
“We must have constants in the negotiation process, including agreeing on the rules for filling, operating the dam, exchanging data and concluding a legally binding agreement.”
Omar explained: “We asked the Ethiopians to reduce the filling rate if the revenues from the Blue Nile reached 43 billion cubic meters per year, to slow down the filling rate if the revenues from the Blue Nile reached 40 billion cubic meters per year. year, and to completely stop filling if revenues from the Blue Nile reached 37 billion cubic meters.
He noted that the average revenue from the Blue Nile stands at 48.5 billion cubic meters per year.
“If Blue Nile revenues fall below 37 billion cubic meters after five to seven years of prolonged drought and Ethiopia continues to fill the dam, this constitutes one of the cases in which hard force will be used. The other aspect is that if Ethiopia starts building irrigation dams that consume water and affect Egypt’s share, that is also a red line.”
Omar assured that he would not wait for Ethiopia to cross these “red lines”, referring to the tools by which Egypt exerts pressure using soft methods as long as Ethiopia does not cross the line.
Omar’s speech highlights the issues surrounding the GERD and underlines Egypt’s determination to protect its water interests, while leaving the door open to negotiation as long as the “red lines” are not crossed. These statements come amid growing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the filling of the dam and its impact on the flow of the Nile, a vital resource for Egypt.
It is crucial that these two countries find common ground and reach a fair agreement that preserves the interests of all parties involved. Diplomacy and negotiations remain the preferred means to resolve this dispute, in order to avoid any escalation towards more coercive measures.
Egypt has already proposed several solutions, including an approach based on specific figures that determine the filling level of the dam based on revenues from the Blue Nile. However, much remains to be done to reach a mutually acceptable agreement.
It is essential that countries in the region engage in constructive dialogue and demonstrate political will to resolve this dispute. Water is a precious and vital resource that requires careful management and regional cooperation to ensure stability and prosperity for all.
It is time for all parties involved to demonstrate flexibility and open-mindedness in order to find lasting solutions that will benefit all Nile Basin countries. The road to a fair and win-win agreement may be long and difficult, but it is essential to preserve peace and stability in the region.