“The rise in rice prices: a persistent problem on the market”
In recent weeks, the rice market has seen an increase in prices, thus putting an end to a period of decline which had been favorable for many players. Unfortunately, this lull was only short-lived, suggesting difficulties to come for those who hoped for price stabilization.
The main cause of this situation is the lack of white rice available at an affordable price. Indonesia is a concrete example, having managed to purchase only half of the volumes it needed last month. And it is unlikely that it will find a satisfactory response during its next calls for tenders.
Indian rice remains the most affected by this shortage. Although New Delhi has eased export restrictions in place for a year, the situation has not really changed significantly. The relief measures remain limited and subject to government authorization, which demonstrates their political nature. Additionally, the country recently extended a 20% tax on parboiled rice, which was expected to end in October 2023.
Faced with this situation, there are few countries capable of compensating the Indian offer. Thailand, the world’s second largest exporter, as well as Pakistan, have already reached their export limit, according to an industry expert. This strong Asian demand has also led to an unprecedented situation where the prices of Vietnamese rice have exceeded those of Thai rice.
Importers therefore find themselves in a delicate position, dipping into their already limited stocks and purchasing only the bare minimum. However, with growing demand from countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, there is still an estimated five million tonnes of rice shortage in the market.
However, there is a glimmer of hope in West Africa, where harvests have started and the supply of local rice should gradually improve on the markets. According to the N’Kalo agricultural bulletin, production prospects are optimistic, while emphasizing that the continent remains 40% dependent on imports and therefore remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the international market.
In conclusion, rising rice prices constitute a persistent problem on the market, with countries like Indonesia struggling to find solutions in the face of limited supply. It remains to be seen how the situation develops in the coming months, but it is clear that measures will need to be taken to prevent a potential food crisis.