Chad recently began campaigning for a vote on a new constitution, a perceived test of the legitimacy of the ruling junta and the Itno dynasty that has ruled for 30 years.
The transitional president, General Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, whose junta has governed since 2021, had promised to hand over power to civilians and organize elections this year, before postponing them until 2024.
More than 8.3 million people in the vast but poor Sahelian country are expected to vote in a referendum scheduled for Dec. 17, a key step toward elections and the establishment of civilian rule.
The opposition, NGOs and political scientists say the vote appears to be focused on maintaining the Itno “dynasty” and his family after the three decades of absolute power of his father, Idriss Deby Itno.
At the launch conference of the “Yes” coalition’s pro-junta campaign on Saturday, its president, Prime Minister Saleh Kebzazo, encouraged supporters to “propagate the values of a highly decentralized unitary state.”
Supporters of a federal state urge voters to reject this text by voting “no”.
“Beyond the form that the state will take, the main question is to allow power to test its popularity and legitimacy, which will be determined by the participation rate,” said Issa Job, professor of law at the University of N’Djamena, to AFP.
“The form of the state is not the priority,” added Enock Djondang, former president of the Chadian League for Human Rights (LTDH).
“All those who reject this regime can only vote against what he proposes.”
The proposed new constitution is not very different from the old one, which concentrated many powers in the hands of the head of state.
The “Yes” camp supports a unitary state, while opponents support a federal model.
The most radical opposition groups, some of whose leaders have gone into exile since the bloody repression of a demonstration on October 20, 2022, are calling for a boycott of what they describe as a “masquerade”.
What is proposed is a “solitary electoral process” for the “perpetuation of a dynastic system”, according to the Consultation Group of Political Actors (GCAP), a platform bringing together around twenty parties.
– “Free” elections –
On April 20, 2021, a junta of 15 generals proclaimed 37-year-old General Mahamat Deby president for a transition period after the death of his father on the front while accompanying troops against the rebels.
The young Deby had promised when he took power to hand over power to civilians and to organize “free” elections after a transition period of 18 months.
He also agreed not to run himself..
But 18 months later, on the recommendation of a national dialogue boycotted by the vast majority of the opposition and the most powerful rebel groups, Mahamat Deby extended the transition period by two years.
He also allowed himself to run for president, ditching his military uniform for civilian clothes.
– “Massacre” –
Mass protests broke out in October last year after the transition period was extended and were violently suppressed by security forces.
Between 100 and 300 people were shot dead by police, according to the opposition and NGOs, as people demonstrated in the capital N’Djamena and beyond.
Authorities say around 50 people died, including six members of the security forces.
On Thursday, the government granted an amnesty “to all civilians and soldiers” involved in the unrest, testifying to the junta’s “desire for national reconciliation”.
The opposition was outraged by the idea of a general amnesty law intended to “protect from justice the police and soldiers responsible for the massacre”.
All anti-regime protests have been summarily declared illegal over the past year, with the exception of one featuring key opposition figure Succes Masra, who returned from exile after signing a “reconciliation” agreement with Deby.
On October 13, Human Rights Watch (HRW) expressed concern about “attempts to limit political dissent ahead of the referendum.”
“For this referendum to have any legitimacy, opposition parties and their leaders must feel free to meet and campaign. Otherwise, the referendum risks being seen as a means of transforming the transitional government into a government permanent.”
Chad’s population of 18 million is divided between its arid north and a Muslim population, which has dominated power for more than 40 years, and a more fertile south mainly populated by Christians and animists.
Chad was ranked second in the world on the United Nations Human Development Index last year and 167th out of 180 countries in perceptions of corruption by Transparency International.