Global oil demand is constantly evolving and recent figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlight the impact of Chinese imports on this trend. Indeed, China recorded record demand of more than 17 million barrels per day in September, mainly driven by the growing needs of the petrochemical industry.
This significant increase in Chinese demand has led the IEA to revise upwards its forecast for global demand for this year, which is expected to reach an average of 102 million barrels per day. However, despite this growth, medium-term trends remain unchanged according to the IEA. In its most recent report, the agency emphasizes that demand will continue to increase, but at a slower pace. Indeed, the growth forecast for 2024 is around 930,000 barrels per day, two-thirds less than the growth observed this year.
This future saturation of demand is attributed to more efficient use of energy, an increase in the number of electric vehicles on the market and the end of post-Covid effects on economic activity. It is expected that starting next year there will be a surplus of oil on the market, which could lead to greater price volatility.
Despite this forecast of a slowdown in demand, oil prices remain relatively stable around $80 per barrel. This is partly explained by signals of declining demand in the United States and poor economic indicators in China. Additionally, geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas have not yet significantly impacted prices. The IEA specifies that at this stage, no oil supply problem has been observed since the start of the conflict.
Finally, it should be noted that global oil production remains increasing, as indicated by the IEA. Production continued to increase in October, confirming the upward trend in global supply.
In conclusion, global oil demand is driven by Chinese imports, which currently represent a record level. However, there is a trend towards saturation of demand in the medium term, with slower growth expected for the coming years. This development could lead to a surplus of oil in the market, which could lead to greater price volatility. Despite this, global oil production continues to grow, keeping supply on an upward slope.