The tragic explosion that struck the Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza on October 17, 2023 raised many questions about its cause and the resulting responsibilities. According to a European military source cited by France 24, the explosion was due to a failed shot launched from the Gaza enclave. This information contradicts the statements of Hamas, which tried to blame Israel.
The analysis carried out by the European military source is based on different elements. First of all, the satellite images collected show limited damage around the point of impact, without significant destruction of surrounding buildings. The hole caused by the explosion measures approximately one meter by 75 cm in diameter and 30 cm in depth, suggesting the use of a rocket with a payload of approximately 5 to 10 kg.
In addition, no trace of gunfire waste, corresponding to the remains of a rocket or missile, was observed on site. This rules out the possibility of an air-to-ground strike from an Israeli fighter jet or drone, which would have left debris at the scene of the explosion. Likewise, the hypothesis of an interception of a Hamas rocket fire is unlikely, because the debris generated during this interception would not correspond to the damage observed.
The most plausible theory, according to the European military source, is that of a Hamas or Islamic Jihad rocket which lost its trajectory. With a 10% error rate, it is possible that a rocket fired from Gaza ended up hitting the Ahli Arab hospital. The characteristics of the hole and damage also match those of rockets used by Palestinian factions, with a dimension of approximately 107 mm and an explosive charge of approximately 5 kg.
However, it is important to emphasize that this information does not allow us to confirm the exact number of victims. The announced toll of “471 people” according to the Gaza Ministry of Health and between 100 and 300 people according to American intelligence remains subject to doubt. The uncertainties regarding the number of dead and injured are reinforced by other elements, such as the speed with which this toll was announced and the dead/injured ratio which amounts to 1 to 4.
In conclusion, the explosion at the Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza was caused by a misfire, probably a Hamas or Islamic Jihad rocket. However, the exact circumstances of this tragic event and the number of victims still remain subject to debate. It is essential to continue to closely monitor developments in this case to obtain all the necessary answers.