The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth is expected to decline for the second year in a row, according to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Indeed, the growth rate is expected to stand at 3.3% in 2023, compared to 4.0% in 2022. This economic contraction is mainly attributed to the inflationary shock caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war, which led to an increase in interest rates around the world.
However, IMF experts remain optimistic about the resumption of economic activity in the region in 2024, with growth expected at 4.0%. This recovery is expected to be particularly strong in sub-Saharan African countries that are poor in natural resources.
Despite these encouraging prospects, several factors continue to hamper the region’s economic growth. Inflation remains high, exceeding 10% in 14 countries and remaining above targets set in almost all countries. Pressures on exchange rates are also strong, and countries face debt challenges, with a shortage of financing and debts that are difficult to refinance.
Faced with these challenges, the IMF recommends that countries in the sub-Saharan region put in place measures such as controlling inflation, managing pressure on exchange rates, preserving external stability and respecting repayments. debt while preserving room for maneuver for development spending.
It is also important to increase domestic revenue, spend strategically, borrow prudently and put in place a credible medium-term fiscal policy.
However, the IMF warns of the risk of compromising economic growth if reforms are slow to be implemented, or if political instability increases in the region, notably due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy or the emergence of an external risk.
In conclusion, sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth faces challenges, but appropriate measures can be taken to boost economic recovery. Implementing structural reforms, strengthening economic stability and improving public financial management are essential to foster sustainable growth in the region.