News: Projections show global temperatures could exceed 1.5°C by 2023
According to new projections from the climate modeling institute Berkeley Earth, global temperatures could exceed a 1.5°C rise compared to the pre-industrial era by 2023. The institute estimates that more than 55% of the risk that this alarm threshold set at COP21 in 2015 will be crossed for the first time.
These predictions have raised concerns about the impact on the Paris climate accords. However, it is important to note that 2023 would be the first year to exceed this threshold, which does not mean that the Paris agreements are a failure. Indeed, according to IPCC experts, it is necessary to have an average temperature above 1.5°C for around 20 years to see that global warming has crossed this threshold.
Berkeley Earth’s forecasts are considered plausible, although that institute tends to make warmer assumptions about temperatures. Furthermore, the current trajectory of global warming is below an increase of 1.2°C, which means that the IPCC projections, which estimate that the threshold of 1.5°C will be reached between 2030 and 2052 , are not called into question.
It is also important to note that the El Niño phenomenon plays a role in these higher temperatures. Although scientists anticipated the arrival of El Niño, it appears to be more powerful than expected, which partly explains the abnormally high temperatures recorded in recent months.
It is therefore essential not to panic at the sight of these forecasts, but it remains a worrying indicator of the urgency of acting in the face of global warming. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and find sustainable solutions must be intensified in order to avoid the disastrous consequences of uncontrolled global warming. Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold does not mean all hope is lost, but it highlights the need to act quickly to preserve our planet for future generations.
Sources:
– “New projections show global temperatures could exceed 1.5°C by 2023” – Berkeley Earth
– “Exceeding the threshold of 1.5°C in 2023: a worrying indicator but not inevitable” – Nature
– “Projected impact on the Paris agreements if temperatures exceed 1.5°C in 2023” – France 24