Blitzkrieg: the epilogue of an age-old conflict
After decades of conflict, Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh finally led to a deal to disarm Armenian separatists. This outcome marks a decisive victory for Baku, which managed to take advantage of a favorable international context to reestablish its control over this Armenian-majority region.
Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave separated from Armenia and attached to Azerbaijan in 1921, has been a disputed territory since the fall of the USSR. In 1991, it proclaimed itself the independent Republic of Artsakh, but was never recognized by the international community. Since then, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have continued to escalate, with regular clashes breaking out in the region.
This time, Azerbaijan took advantage of a favorable international context to launch a major offensive. Supported by Turkey, Baku has benefited from the weakening of Moscow in the region as well as Western dependence on Azerbaijani hydrocarbons. This combination of factors allowed Azerbaijan to establish its military superiority and carry out its plan to reunify the country.
During the offensive, the Azerbaijani armed forces managed to gain the upper hand over their Armenian counterparts, ultimately leading the separatists to agree to lay down their arms. This agreement marks a decisive victory for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev, who had made the reunification of his country a top priority.
However, this conflict was not without humanitarian consequences. Civilian populations were the first victims of this blitzkrieg, and Russian soldiers supposed to guarantee the security of Armenians were criticized for their inaction in the face of the humanitarian crisis that had taken hold in the region. Access to the enclave was blocked, thereby isolating the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh from the rest of the world.
This lightning offensive by Baku is also a reflection of the weakening of Moscow in the region. Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has struggled to fulfill its traditional role as policeman of the Caucasus. Additionally, it has become increasingly dependent on Azerbaijan to circumvent Western sanctions, which has affected its support for Armenia.
In short, the lightning offensive led by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh marks a turning point in this centuries-old conflict. It highlights the geopolitical changes underway in the region and underlines the need for international diplomacy to find a peaceful and lasting solution to this conflict. In the meantime, the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh hope to finally experience peace and stability after decades of violence.