In a complex economic context, the state budget in the Democratic Republic of Congo is the subject of all attention. Indeed, the government recently tabled the 2024 finance bill in Parliament, with revenue and expenditure forecasts amounting to 40.464 billion CDF, or 16 billion US dollars.
However, despite an expected increase in revenue of 24.7%, the government notes an 18% drop in revenue in 2023. Several factors explain this situation. First, the Congolese franc depreciated compared to initial forecasts, leading to a reduction in the estimated budget of $13.1 billion. In addition, inflation also played a leading role, with an increase of 17.2% in August, well beyond the 10% forecast in the finance bill. These conditions had a significant impact on budget execution, with reduced public spending and difficulties in achieving set targets.
The Medium Term Fiscal Framework (MTBF 2024-2026) set the fiscal year 2024 budget tranche at $14.1 billion, with lending forecast at around $1.2 billion. However, the adjustments made to increase the 2024 finance bill to $16 billion seem unrealistic. Indeed, despite the figures on paper, practical achievements pose a serious problem, with significant gaps between forecasts and actual results.
The increase in public debt is another worrying aspect of the economic situation. At the end of 2022, the debt of the Central Administration of the DRC increased by 2.65% compared to the previous year, reaching 17.56% of GDP. In nominal terms, the amount of public debt amounts to 10.41 billion dollars, with a distribution of 45.72% domestic debt and 54.28% external debt. This increase in debt can be explained by the government’s desire to stimulate economic growth and development, but it also raises questions about the management of this debt and its long-term sustainability.
Overall, the fiscal situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo presents significant challenges. Recurring budget deficits, currency fluctuations and high inflation highlight the need for rigorous public financial management and measures to promote economic stability. It is essential that the government takes steps to improve budget execution, reduce the gaps between forecasts and actual results, and find sustainable solutions to deal with the growing debt.